So - What Next?

As the dust begins to settle (and it is settling already) the parties all have to look at their next moves. Immediate concerns for the SNP will be getting John Mason working hard as an MP - difficult to do when the House has shut down for the summer. It will take at least until after recess before he has any help whatsoever in terms of money (after all he's not technically a Member of Parliament until he has been sworn in, so no allowances) but not hitting the ground running is not an option.

And there's the Baillieston by-election to think about too with John Mason having resigned already. Is there a candidate in place? Is there a suitable candidate in place? The SNP will need to select someone who can fill John's shoes as a first-rate councillor. And then get campaigning immediately. No rest for the winners here.

As I said in my post yesterday they also need to get a good answer to the question of what the policy is in the event of a failed referendum campaign.

As for Labour - well, they've got to select their Parliamentary candidate pretty sharpish. Theoretically they should take this seat back, even if they lose the General Election but they won't win it by just assuming it will come back to them. If the rumours about their lack of canvass data is true - and the fact they couldn't get their vote out would imply they were - they need to be spending the next couple of years knocking on every door in the constituency. Twice. And I'm sure MPs in other "safe seats" will be wanting to know if they need to do the same, the answer's yes.

They also need to treat the council by-election with a lot of respect. They could win it, although I'm not convinced. This is one election where I think that candidate selection will matter a lot. As will an early start.

As for the others, well the Lib Dems need to sort themselves out a leader and rethink their by-election strategy. This was a pretty shocking performance from them. The Tories - more of the same from them would be good. They were gutsy, spirited and put up a good show in the face of public antipathy and a major squeeze operation. Solidarity and the SSP need to ask if they still have a place in Scottish politics. Between them they were less popular than the Conservative candidate. In the East End of Glasgow. The writing's on the wall.

So an interesting night, but the story didn't end at 2am. There's still a lot more fights to be had in the East End over the next few weeks. Stay tuned.

Election Day Campaign Review

So it's finally election day and early accounts indicate that its a slow one. Time for a totally unscientific campaign review and a bold, but probably flawed prediction. Living in Surrey I've not been on the ground in the campaign so am relying on blogs, news coverage, snatched bits of gossip and my own opinions to make these judgments.

SNP

Started brilliantly and captured the Big Mo early on. Picked a good, local, popular candidate - then did their level-best to stop him speaking in case he was a bit off-message. It was easy for Labour to attack the campaign as another Salmond ego-trip as he spoke more than the candidate. Ultimately though that won't make a huge difference as people like to hear from the party leaders and many people in the area know John Mason anyway.

The Party needs to get a better answer to the question about what they'll do if the referendum on independence goes against them.

A good, solid campaign. 8/10

Labour

Dear God - how bad was the start of this campaign? They failed to abide by the first rule of elections - if you don't have a candidate don't call an election. The crucial first weekend was a disaster which has tainted the rest of the campaign by allowing the SNP to grab the momentum then run with it. When they selected their fourth/fifth/nineteenth choice candidate it was a good one and that helped to steady the ship. There have been a few gaffes and bad news stories since but nothing that will matter to people outside politics.

Before Mags Curran 0/10
After Mags Curran 6.5/10

Lib Dems

Have been anonymous, bland and focussed only on the fire station, admittedly a damn good local issue. Don't rate their campaign or their chances of keeping third spot.

Dull dull dull 4/10

Conservatives

A good show in a seat they will never even have a sniff of winning. A good candidate and a well liked Scottish leader have given the Tories more airtime and control of the agenda than is really their right. Will still get a kicking, but a respectable one and could possibly overtake the Lib Dems into third.

Punching above their East End weight 7/10

The others

Well, not being in the constituency there's not much to see or say. Looks like the SSP and Solidarity may finally wipe each other out of any sort of relevance. Expect the Greens to come fifth.

Prediction

Low poll of about 31% with Labour just holding on by about 1000. Conservatives to come third and everyone below them to lose their deposit. I expect everyone to be back in Baillieston in about 8 months time as Margaret steps down and Steven Purcell goes for his place in Holyrood, lining up a leadership bid as the next hapless Labour leader falls by the wayside.

There has been no number-crunching, no inside information, nothing but gut feeling so expect this prediction to be utterly wrong. :-)

A Tricky By-Election

The news that there will soon be a by-election in Glasgow East has sent many of my political friends into a frenzy of excitement.

On the face of it this is a rock-solid Labour seat. The last majority was 13,507 and the SNP need a 22% swing to capture it. Normally a swing of that magnitude would be just that little bit impossible at a General Election - but by-elections are something different. The expectation, given Labour's woes, will surely be that the SNP will pull off a stunning victory.

But it won't be that easy - rumours are swirling that the candidate will be Elaine C. Smith. Where does that leave the already selected candidate Lachie MacNeill. And if Lachie MacNeill is the candidate - does he have the experience, knowledge and abilities for such a high-profile campaign? I don't know Lachie so wouldn't like to say but it tends to be that the best candidate to put up a good fight in an unwinnable seat is not always be the best person to take it on to win it in the spotlight of a media frenzy. Will Elaine C. Smith - a woman whose own "Chairities and Politics" page on her website doesn't mention independence go down well with the local members?

As for Labour - they really are in trouble. Anything except a win for them will be a disaster. Everyone knows that, but do they have the stomach for such a battle? Or will the campaign for a new Scottish leader overshadow everything else?

And the Conservatives? Well everyone knows they won't win Glasgow East. In 2005 their share of the vote was 6.9%. The campaign team from Crewe and Henley won't be troubling themselves on the doors of the East End. But the last story that David Cameron wants is the wheels coming off the election machine which is doing so well. A squeezed vote and lost deposit (likely outcome surely?) will mean that one story to come out of the by-election is that the Conservatives are still unwelcome in Scotland, that the Crewe vote wasn't a sign of making genuine and sustainable progress in Labour's heartlands - it was nothing more than a protest vote. If Labour lose they will want to deflect some of the pain, and this will be the easiest (and cheapest) way to do it. So the Conservatives will be looking to hold their share of the vote - or even increase it - and probably overtake the Lib Dems for third place. And the Lib Dems? Well they will want to stop the rot of Crewe and Henley so I imagine there will be an interesting - if irrelevant - scrap for third place.

If Labour win, even by the tiniest majority, it will be touted as a major success and defeat for the SNP. If the SNP win it will undoubtedly be a great victory but will it come at cost of upset members? The Conservatives could see a grinding halt to their relentless march to the next general election and the Lib Dems could just slide further into obscurity.

Its a tricky by-election for every party which of course should make for great viewing for those of us not involved.

Clashing Calculators

I'm wondering how long it will take the SNP to realise that you can't continue to cut taxes, freeze taxes, cut charges and not face the bitten arse of cutting services too.

As regular readers and friends will know I'm in a constant state of flux on my opinions on independence - I think Scotland could be a successful independent country, but I'm yet to be convinced of the need.

I've been really impressed by some of the work of the new Scottish Government and I think Alex Salmond is genuinely the best person for the job of First Minister, but over the past few days doubts have started to creep in. While I'm generally against prescription charges I'm unsure about the wisdom of gradually abolishing them. If 92% of prescriptions are free anyway is it such a big thing? Would the return of free eye tests not be a more useful first move?

I'm also quite disturbed to find that the Scottish Government is abolishing the ring-fenced funding for CVS and Volunteer Centres and passiing the buck to local authorities instead. Local councils are forced into a council tax freeze - the last thing they need is more fiscal responsibility passed onto them.

And the reporting of John Swinney's meeting with Yvette Cooper is concerning. Taking aside the fact that Alistair Darling, not Yvette Copper, is John Swinney's counterpart if this BBC report is true it just reinforces the belief that the SNP want to do a load of cool things in Scotland, but won't take responsibility for the payment of it.

The SNP have some great policies, and I strongly support their principle of social justice and equality, but these policies have to be paid for. By Scotland. Until the SNP government takes the tough decisions rather than just the popular ones it will appear less like a government and more like an Opposition party getting one (or several) over the actual government.

**Update**

As pointed out by Jeff in the comments, eye tests are already free in Scotland. So apologies for getting that one wrong. My point remains the same - just with a different viewpoint. It's probably more important to ensure that the 30.1% of children not currently registered with an NHS dentist are given the opportunity than to abolish a charge with less than 10% of users pay. Will try to get my facts straight next time.

Does The Spectator Know Anything About Scottish Politics?

First of all let me say I am a huge fan of the Spectator. When I was a student and got a cheap subscription I would love it hitting the floor on Friday mornings. And I also think that Alex Salmond did a top-notch job at winning the Scottish elections this year. A brilliant campaign led by a charismatic figure which really changed the face of British, not just Scottish, politics.

Having said that I am at a loss as to why Alex Salmond won Parliamentarian of the Year. And my confusion comes with the comments of the editor of the Spectator. He said:

"Whatever your view on that great question, the judges felt it was right to salute the man whose brilliant tactics in the Scottish Parliament laid the foundations for an extraordinary victory."

Now the first half of the statement, right up until tactics I have no problem with. But I do wonder if Matthew d'Ancona, the editor of the premier political magazine in the country knows that until May Alex Salmond wasn't a member of the Scottish Parliament. His tactics were great, they did lay the foundations of victory, but they weren't laid in Parliament. So is this a snub to Nicola Sturgeon who was brilliant as leader of the opposition in the Scottish Parliament, another snub to Scotland by the English establishment who just don't care enough to know the basics, or (much more likely)shoe-horning recognition of Salmond into some category, no matter what one it was?

Anyway - well done. A richly deserved victory if a little bizarre.

Thank God for Aviemore

It's perhaps not been the best few days for Alex Salmond. I would say for the first time since May, even counting the defeats in Parliament, he's had a bad week. And unfortunately for him it's been on good policy issues.

First the nuclear story. It was a sound move to write to countries signed up to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to highlight Scotland's opposition to nuclear weapons and to ask for support in Scotland receiving observer status. It continued well the policy of pushing forward Scotland's position as a nation seperate to England. But for God's sake, check who you're writing to when you send letters. Don't just accept that whatever Excel spits out at you is a good thing. Remove the nasty people like Iran, Burma and Zimbabwe from your database. I can just see it now "Dear Mahmoud, Please, please support us and we'll ignore your views on the Holocaust and women and stuff, yours aye, Eck."

There's some people you just don't do business with. First because you don't want to make a stand at any costs, second - well it's just embarrassing to allow Nicol Stephen to score points off your actions and third - the good policy has been lost.

And the 1000 extra/additional/equivalent police officers. The dangers of making promises in opposition that you can't keep in government bit him in the bum this week. It must have been a right red-neck for both Wendy Alexander and Nicol Stephen to make direct hits in the one week.

Still, it's conference this weekend. And he'll perform brilliantly, the SNP members will love it and there will be a bounce. Which will hopefully allow the focus to start to go back onto the good policies.

But the opposition parties will start to have a glimmer of hope - he can be damaged. He isn't invincible after all. There may even be a light...

Protection of minorities or destruction of freedoms?

I've been meaning to blog for a few days about the proposed bill banning incitement of homophobic hatred in England and Patrick Harvie MSP's campaign to extend race hate laws to encompass discrimination against LGBT and Disabled people.

I'm torn on this. I truly believe that there is no place in any civilised society for the kind of abuse these laws are designed to stop. But will it just be abuse that is stopped or will it be used to stop genuine debate or expression of religious and moral beliefs? I have my suspicions that the laws will be interpreted in the narrowest possible manner which will crack down on genuine debate and not do anything to stop the spread of homophobia, racism etc.

There is a real conversation needed on whether or not gay couples should be allowed to adopt. My opinion is absolutely yes, but I respect the right of someone who says the opposite to say that in a measured way. Just because someone's religious or moral beliefs are totally opposite to my own or I find their views unpalatable doesn't mean they shouldn't be allowed to express those views. When we stop one side of an argument from speaking out we only encourage the extremists. The stifling of the debate on immigration is a perfect example. By accusing anyone who mentioned immigration in a negative manner of racism only the BNP was left speaking from one point of view. We've seen a Church of England vicar visited by the Police for expressing an opinion about Muslim women wearing the veil - I'm sure that this wasn't the kind of comment that the race hate laws were designed for, but that's what they are being used for.

I want to see an end to homophobic comments, I'd be quite happy to see certain rappers in jail for their song lyrics but I don't want someone visited by the police because they say in a reasonable manner that they don't approve of gay relationships. I think I'll reserve judgement on these laws until we see how they work in practice....

Why Are The Unionist Parties Scared to Talk?

I was really quite annoyed to see the three unionist parties in Scotland come out in opposition to the Independence White Paper. Of course they don't agree with the White Paper, they are unionists, they don't want to see independence but I don't see what the problem is with a White Paper or with the "national conversation" that Alex Salmond has suggested.

My views on independence are mixed. In the past couple of years I have moved towards thinking it's a good idea. I've joined the SNP but not just out of a desire for independence but also because on issues like civil liberties the SNP view is closest to my own. And there's the family connections too. If I lived and voted in Scotland I would be exactly the kind of person the conversation would be aimed at. I would have voted SNP this year, I was delighted to see the SNP become the largest party in both Holyrood and Local Government but ask me if how I'd vote in an independence referendum and I'd really struggle.

I get so angry when people say that Scotland COULDN'T be a successful independent country. Of course it could. It's a country of intelligence, talent and a solid base of natural resources. When I hear the English argument of "we fund them Scotch they should be grateful" I get so wound up and feel like singing Corries songs until the cows come home.

There are questions that need to be answered on both sides. A couple of quick examples off the top of my head:

What would happen about the Royal Family? I'm not a commited Unionist these days but having a Republic of Scotland would be a crunch for me.

Why are the SNP so keen to leave one Union but will happily sign up to deeper union in Europe? It seems a contridiction to me.

Why are the Conservatives happy to support a referendum on Britain in Europe but not Scotland in Britain?

I think both sides of the debate have persuasive arguments. Neither has anything to fear - although the Unionist knee-jerk, debate-stifling reaction would imply that they are scared. Putting their fingers in their ears and shouting la-la-la won't stop the White Paper being published and it won't stop people thinking about it.

Politics should be about great debates - this could be one of the greatest ever. It would be a shame if only one side was talking.

Scotland loses an MEP - World Keeps Turning

So the Electoral Commission (spit, spit, curses upon them) have recommended that Scotland - along with most other UK regions - should lose an MEP.

I should care. My newly-found Nationalism should be rearing up in several respects. Scotland isn't just a region of the UK it's a country. While the number of MEPs Scotland has is proportionate to other UK "regions" it isn't to other countries in the EU. Slovakia and Finland have roughly comparable population to Scotland and both have 14 MEPs - double Scotland's current quota. This is clearly another case of Scotland being done down by being in the Union. I really should care.

I don't. The number of politicians a country has doesn't interest me in the slightest. Add Europe to the equation and I start to rock back and forth in boredom. Yes it's appalling that Scotland is under-represented, yes the European institutions control 99.99999999% of our laws, yes it's all very important. But really - I couldn't care less.

Do any of us get a good deal from our MEPs? Are the seven current Scottish MEPs earning their whack as it is? Okay, I live in Surrey so can't really speak with great authority on the coverage of Scottish MEPs in the local press and TV but the only one I've seen getting any sort of coverage is Struan Stevenson and his excellent animal fur campaign. The rest all seem to be a bit anonymous.

So yes, I'm sure it's all very important, but wake me up when there's an interesting politics story in the headlines.

Dropping the Debt Monster

As I said yesterday I am delighted that the new SNP Executive has abolished tuition fees for Scottish students in Scottish universities (and none of your nonsense about endowments - it was a tuition fee). As someone who would never have gone to university without my fees being paid the thought of University becoming some sort of exclusive preserve for those who could afford it horrified me.

There aren't many things that government/taxpayers should provide for the public but education is one of those things. A country needs teachers, lawyers, doctors, etc etc and it should pay for their education. That's not to say that unlimited years should be covered with a whole load of perpetual students being funded forever though and I'm also not so convinced by the need for grants though, there is only so much money in the public purse and life isn't perfect.

When I worked for the Conservative Party pre-2005 I was delighted that the policy was to abolish student fees and in the constituency I worked in we worked quite a lot on this policy because we knew it was the right thing to do. I was horribly disappointed when David Cameron reversed this policy - it was just one more example of a very rich man assuming that the rest of the population could afford the lifestyle he can.

This was a good statement yesterday and the £15/£20 million cost is one well worth paying - in fact at approximately £3.63 per person it's a downright bloody bargain.

The SNP Whirlwind

Well, people who think politics is boring obviously haven't been paying attention to the last month in Scottish politics. From the final declaration of the results, to the threatened legal challenges, the discussions on coalition and deals to Alex Salmond's election as FM and Tony Blair's refusal to even speak to him it's all been really very exciting.

And amongst all this the new Executive has been making some really quite substantial policy announcements - the reversal of the decision to close A&E Units, cross-party co-operation on sex offenders, the NHS Staff pay deal, plans for a new Skills strategy, the investigation into rendition flights, discussions with GPs on opening hours and today's exceptional announcement that education will once again be free in Scotland. (more on that later)

In a world where politics can be depressingly homogenous the SNP are proving that there are significant differences between the Parties and that voting a new government in will change things. Of course, not everything will be plain sailing - all of these excellent policies will have to be paid for, and that may mean a tax hit. So more interesting times ahead.

You Lost Jack - Get Over It

Stayed up late last night to watch the First First Minister's Questions with the First SNP First Minister. All the reviews I had read (ok so Brian Taylor's and Indy Gal's) had highlighted both how good Salmond was and how amusing Annabel Goldie always is so it seemed like one to watch.

What struck me wasn't how good Salmond was - and he was, or how funny Annabel was - and she was but how angry Jack McConnell was. He sarcastically stressed the words "First Minister" as if he still can't believe that he was beaten, his face was either grey or white with bitterness and he banged on about how the new Executive should do exactly as he would do.

It's hard to lose elections - I know this from bitter experience, I was a Conservative Party member from 1994-2005 but you don't get anywhere by sulking about the result a month later and throwing your toys out of the pram.

Opposition is an important job, Governments have to be held to account for their actions. Jack McConnell demeans himself, his position, the First Minister and Executive and most of all the Scottish electorate by behaving like a petulant, spoilt brat.

Things have to get worse before they get better

New Scottish Deputy First Minister and Health Secretary Nicola Sturgeon will be announcing this week a strategy for tackling waiting lists. All politicians like to sound tough on waiting lists - waiting lists must come down they all agree but no-one actually knows how to do it and instead they set arbitrary targets which clinicians spend their time struggling to meet.

We now have the situation where there are waiting lists to get onto the reportable waiting lists - the figures look good but people are still waiting to be seen. My suggestion to Nicola Sturgeon is to strip away the previously set targets and take some time to properly assess the situation without taking into account hidden lists.

There will be a short-term hit and bad publicity as the times appear to go up massively, but if a government is serious about tackling problems it must first know exactly what these problems are and have the guts to put in place a strategy which will achieve long-term results, even at the expense of short-term bad headlines.

Too true to be funny

The Daily Mash reports on the Scottish election fiasco

I may have found a new favourite website.

And the prize for no self-awareness goes to....

...Margo MacDonald MSP.

She has advised someone to "go and find a darkened room and have a quiet lie down" - exactly the words I used about her today.

Margo doll - we all love you, but you've made a roaring arse of yourself in the past week. First standing against Alex Fergusson when he was obviously the right person for the job and getting soundly whipped in the process. And then not voting for Alex Salmond as First Minister just because you were in a wee tuppenny bit with him.

You give good advice Margo, maybe it's time to take some yourself.